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applied fluids engineering, inc. has offered a full service Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) since 2004, after the publication of the first such model by Dr. Watts. Since that time, customers in the insurance, oil & gas, and nuclear industries have sought PTHAs for a variety of projects and concerns. PTHA is carried out with earthquake tsunamis, landslide tsunamis, and volcanic tsunamis. The analysis begins with the identification of all possible tsunami sources and their respective locations in both the near and far fields. The largest possible variation in tsunami source parameters is sought to encompass both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The analysis produces Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for tsunami amplitude and period at the source locations. Detailed tsunami simulations with a 4th order Boussinesq model carry tsunami source results to a site of interest, for any chosen frequencies of exceedance. Tsunami hazards at the site can be expressed in probabilistic space, as an overall frequency of exceedance from all tsunami source locations. PDFs are found for any tsunami hazard identified at the site, and the frequency of exceedance can be found for any hazard threshhold. One benefit of PTHA is that tsunami hazards are identified over thousands and millions of years without operator intervention, so no events are ruled out or discounted as tsunami hazards. Another benefit of PTHA is that uncertainty is dealt with in a proper scientific manner, covering virtually the entire physical space of what is possible. PDFs at the site are strong representations of the physical environment, with highly relevant tsunami hazards. |